As we suspected before the keynote on September 7th, Apple has significantly increased the prices for the iPhones, Airpods and the Apple Watch. Apple had hard economic reasons for the price increase: not only is there high inflation and problems with the supply chain, but above all the euro has fallen sharply in value against the US dollar. This raises the question of whether Apple will also increase the prices of the new Macbooks Pro? We assume so, but the question is by what amount …
Current best price: Macbook Pro 14 inch M1 Pro with 16 GB RAM and 512 GB SSD
The background: Actually, every fall or rise in the dollar makes a price adjustment necessary for all US companies. Despite so-called hedging, currency fluctuations cost Apple many billions in profits – these are calculated in US dollars. However, a company cannot constantly change its prices, so Apple sets the price when a product is released and rarely changes it later. However, an adjustment will be necessary if the increase is very strong (like just now) and no change is foreseeable in the near future.
Similar to the iPhones, we therefore expect Apple to raise prices for the next generation of MacBook Pro models, at least in Europe. What’s more: Price increases are easier to enforce, especially with the expensive top models. While the price of the iPhone SE or the Airpods rose only moderately, the prices of the iPhone 14 Pro have risen particularly sharply compared to the previous year.
That’s what the new Macbook Pro cost
The 14-inch Macbook Pro currently costs $1999 and the 16-inch version is $2499. In Germany, this becomes 2249 euros and 2749 euros. For the new models with an M2 CPU, on the other hand, we are guessing at the new base prices of 2599 euros and 3199 euros.
So we come to the calculation
As is well known, Apple regularly adjusts its European prices to the dollar exchange rate. Apple regularly sets an internal conversion factor for the euro – for example 1.1 – and the prices in the European stores are adjusted to this factor at irregular intervals – especially when a new product is launched. The iPhone 14 Pro currently costs 999 dollars in the USA and 1300 euros in Germany. The difference between the euro and dollar price of the Apple Watch Ultra is even more blatant: it costs 799 dollars in the USA and 999 euros in Germany!
When the old Macbook Pro model appeared in October 2021, the euro was still worth around 17 percent more and a new adjustment is overdue. We suspect that Apple has already adjusted to the strong dollar with the new MacBook Air. The Macbook Air M2 costs 1199 euros in the USA and 1499 euros in Germany – a conversion factor that is significantly higher than in previous years.
The calculation becomes a bit more complicated because the net price is actually listed in the USA. So we actually have to reckon with 999 x 1.1 plus 19 percent VAT. For a 14-inch Macbook Pro, this would be 1999 x 1.1 = 2200. Including VAT, this results in 2617 euros. However, Apple does not stick slavishly to this factor and usually makes sure that the prices are still attractive. A “crooked” price like 2617 euros would deter many buyers, a “smooth” price like 2599 looks more attractive. With the same calculation, we get about 3199 euros for the Macbook Pro 16 inch.
Another reason for a price upgrade: the distance to the Macbook Air is currently quite small. If you want a Macbook Air with more RAM or SSD storage space, you can very quickly get close to the 14-inch Macbook Pro in terms of price. But that will change after a price increase.
Should you still buy the old model?
The question is whether you should still buy an old model at the “old” price? The 14-inch model is available from specialist retailers for just under 1950 euros. The upcoming models will probably only offer marginal improvements, and people will probably be satisfied with the 2021 models for a long time. However, we believe that there is no time pressure here. Even shortly after the appearance of the new Macbooks Pro, there will probably still be enough models from the pre-series in specialist shops – but you should probably not expect a further drop in prices.
Current best price: Macbook Pro 16 inch M1 Pro with 16 GB RAM and 512 GB SSD