• Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives: iPhone demand is stable
• Rumors of a reduction in the iPhone order do not match Ming-Chi Kuo’s estimates
• iPhone demand in the Chinese market could be higher than expected
Daniel Ives: iPhone demand slightly higher than expected
As the financial market platform “investing.com” reports, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives is defending iPhone maker Apple after various Wall Street analysts lowered their price targets for the US company. In a note to customers, Ives explained that the supply chain situation in Asia is quite stable and has improved slightly. And in his opinion, the demand for iPhones is still stable.
“We believe iPhone demand is holding up slightly better than expected (despite the various supply issues that have plagued Apple and the rest of the tech sector). Still, the stock market is aware of weakness this quarter and we believe it will ultimately looking beyond the June numbers to the September and December quarters, with all eyes on the fall iPhone 14 production/demand cycle,” he is quoted as saying in the note to customers.
He goes on to say that investors are underestimating the durability of the iPhone upgrade cycle. Wedbush estimates that around 240 million of Apple’s 1 billion iPhones have not been swapped for a newer device in the past 3.5 years. Overall, Apple should be the tech favorite for 2022, according to Ives.
Ming-Chi Kuo: Reducing the order by ten percent is exaggerated
The analyst Ming-Chi Kuo recently shared his assessment of the upcoming iPhone via Twitter. Earlier, rumors surfaced that TSMC orders for the iPhone 14 had been reduced by ten percent. However, this rumor does not correspond to Kuo’s assessments. According to the analyst, although minor adjustments to iPhone delivery forecasts by Apple are common before an iPhone launch, they are more likely to be in the single digits. “Apple typically does not change delivery forecasts for new iPhones significantly (double-digit increase or decrease) before launching new models and confirming actual market demand or market feedback. If an issue in the supply chain results in a significant change in the delivery schedule for the new iPhones before mass production, Apple usually postpones orders instead of canceling them,” he explains in the Twitter thread.
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My take for the rumored TSMC’s iPhone 14 orders cut by 10%.1. Rumored TSMC’s iPhone 14 orders cut by 10% is not aligned with my survey. I currently maintain my 2H22 shipment forecast for iPhone 14, about 100 mn and 90 mn units for components and EMS, respectively.
– 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) July 2, 2022
Greater demand is expected in China
Kuo also sees more demand for the iPhone 14 than there was for the iPhone 13 from a distributor, retailer, and scaler perspective. “My recent survey shows that some Chinese distributors/retailers/scalers are having to make the highest deposit yet for the iPhone 14 to ensure sufficient supply, which means the demand for the iPhone 14 in the Chinese market is likely to be higher than expected,” he explains on Twitter. In some areas, the down payments are said to be twice as high as for the iPhone 13.
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My latest survey indicates that some Chinese distributors/retailers/scalpers have to pay the highest prepaid deposit ever for iPhone 14 to ensure a sufficient supply, implying the iPhone 14 demand in the Chinese market will likely be higher than expected.– 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) June 30, 2022
Ives also estimates that Apple gained around 300 basis points of market share in the key region of China last year. This is important because the installed base is key to Apple’s long-term success.
E. Schmal / Editor finanzen.net
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